Senior Macroeconomist Steven Friedman shares his post-FOMC thoughts on monetary policy and economics.     He also meets with portfolio managers mid-cycle to discuss markets and investment opportunities.


 

“Historical data illustrates a more stable distribution of bond returns compared to equities. In our view, bonds are quite resilient and with far less risk relative to equities.”

Steven Friedman, Senior Macroeconomist, Head of the Macro and Quantitative Solutions Team

 

Dissecting the Rise in Yields?  

On the latest episode of Forward Guidance, Steve Friedman and Michael DePalma discuss the drivers behind the run-up in Treasury yields in Q4 and into early January, and how this impacts the opportunity set in fixed income markets. They also touch on the California wildfires, as well as the monetary policy outlook and investment opportunities in the euro area.

          

PREVIOUS EPISODES

December 18, 2024
Forward Guidance - 100 and Done?
It is not my base case that the easing cycle is over, but it is understandable why markets are now pricing in some probability of that outcome. Committee participants marked higher their inflation projections and the policy rate path. And the discussion during the press briefing around the incoming Trump administration implies that the rate path could be marked up further should the trade, immigration and fiscal policy preferences of the new administration come about
November 27, 2024
Forward Guidance - Navigating Opportunities in a Post-Election Landscape
In the latest episode of Forward Guidance, Steven Friedman and Michael DePalma discuss their views on how investors can navigate the fixed income market post US election.
November 7, 2024
Forward Guidance - The Election Special
In our latest episode of Forward Guidance, Steven Friedman provides a brief synopsis of the November FOMC meeting, including Chair Powell’s slightly dovish press briefing, before offering some early thoughts on the economic implications of the election. There has been much attention on potentially outsized changes to fiscal, trade and immigration policy. But Steven believes some of the polices as implemented will turn out to be more constrained than advertised.
October 17, 2024
Forward Guidance - Whatever it Takes?
Steven & Michael debate if China's recent policy moves mark a major shift, the US economy's strength post-CPI print and its market implications amid a swift narrative shift from recession to reflation.
August 28, 2024
Forward Guidance - Spasms vs. Chasms
Steven & Michael discuss whether a heightened market volatility presages a major outlook shift or will it recede back to normal amid August’s market swings.
July 22, 2024
Forward Guidance - Elections Come Into Focus
Steven & Michael discuss carry environment continuation as easing cycle comes to focus, in relation to housing & investing amidst election uncertainty.
May 21, 2024
Forward Guidance - Keep Calm and Carry On
Steven Friedman & Michael, discuss the asymmetric risk profile for Treasury yields and more.
APRIL 17, 2024
Forward Guidance - Opportunities in Credit Markets
Steven & Michael, provide their outlook for credit markets against a backdrop of solid growth and high interest rates.